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New global appeal launched for one of Australia's most wanted men

Police have ramped up their efforts to locate one of Australia's most wanted men, who they believe fled the country over two decades ago. In 1999, James Dalamangas allegedly fled to Greece after his believed involvement in the death of a Sydney father. George Giannopoulos attended a Belmore nightclub in Sydney’s south west on April 25th 1999 when he was stabbed twice and died while trying to intervene in a fight between two patrons. A warrant was issued for Mr Dalamangas' arrest the next day over his alleged involvement in the brutal murder, although he was never found. Dalamangas, who worked as a bouncer, is also wanted for questioning over the 1997 shooting murder of another Kings Cross bouncer Tim Voukelates. He was also involved in a brawl at Star City Casino where his brother Peter was killed in 1998. Police believe he fled the country after Mr Giannopoulos' death, with authorities believing he is still living in Greece. After attempts to extradite Mr Dalamangas from Greece were not successful in 2003, Greek authorities agreed to commence the prosecution of Mr Dalamangas over his alleged role in the murder, but the process was suspended in 2007 when he couldn't be found. As the 25-year-long Greek statute of limitations nears, police are re-appealing for anyone with information to come forward, particularly if they can assist in locating Mr Dalamangas in Greece. “A warrant was issued for Mr Dalamangas’ arrest; however, despite extensive inquiries, he has never been located,” police said in a statement. Detectives have released an age progression photo of Dalamangas, who would now be aged 53. Dalamangas is Mediterranean in appearance, between 180 and 185cm tall with a medium build, dark hair and brown eyes. Image credits: AFP

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"Do you hear it?": Worldwide hum global mystery baffles scientists

A perplexing phenomenon known as "The Worldwide Hum" has been capturing the attention of scientists and citizens alike, as an unusual low-frequency noise continues to puzzle experts. This mysterious hum, first recorded in 2012, has been reported by thousands of people worldwide, sparking investigations, online discussions and even <a href="https://www.thehum.info/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the creation of an interactive map</a> documenting instances of the enigmatic sound. As researchers strive to unravel the mystery, individuals share their experiences, raising questions about its origin and effects. Described as a low rumbling or droning sound, "the hum" is often likened to the idling of a car or truck engine. What makes this phenomenon particularly intriguing is that it is not universally heard, with reports of the hum being exclusive to certain individuals. Some claim it is more pronounced at night than during the day, and louder indoors than outdoors. One Reddit user even compared it to the low-frequency vibrations felt when a passenger jet flies overhead. Since its first documentation, more than 6,500 instances of the hum have been reported globally, with new cases continually emerging. The interactive user-generated World Hum Map and Database Project captures the experiences of those who have encountered the sound, providing a comprehensive overview of its widespread occurrence. In some regions, authorities such as the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) have conducted investigations, as was the case in the NSW Waverley Council ten years ago. Despite these efforts, the source of the hum remains elusive. Individuals affected by the mysterious noise often find solace in online communities, where they share their experiences and discuss possible explanations. Some describe feeling as though they are "going insane", and say that the psychological impact of the persistent hum is actually very severe. Facebook support groups have become a platform for individuals to connect, share anecdotes and speculate about the origin of the sound. Theories range from the mundane – such as the use of headphones causing collective tinnitus – to more complex environmental factors. While tinnitus, a symptom of auditory system issues, has been proposed as a potential explanation, it does not account for the collective experience of the hum. Various theories, including industrial plants, ocean waves, lightning strikes and the proliferation of mobile phone towers, have been suggested over the years. However, none of these explanations have gained widespread acceptance or provided a conclusive answer. Dr Glen MacPherson, who initiated the World Hum Map and Database Project, experienced the hum firsthand on Canada's Sunshine Coast. Having debunked the idea of "hum hotspots", Dr MacPherson theorises that the hum may be a subjective phenomenon, akin to tinnitus, originating from within the individual rather than an external source. His 11 years of research highlight the complexity of the mystery, challenging initial assumptions and pointing towards the need for further investigation. As "The Worldwide Hum" continues to captivate the curiosity of scientists and citizens worldwide, the quest for understanding remains elusive. While theories abound, the true origin of the hum remains unknown, leaving both experts and individuals alike intrigued by a phenomenon that transcends geographic boundaries and defies conventional explanations. Image: Getty

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Flying home for Christmas? Carbon offsets are important, but they won’t fix plane pollution

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susanne-becken-90437">Susanne Becken</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-mackey-152282">Brendan Mackey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> Australia is an important player in the global tourism business. In 2016, <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/research/research">8.7 million visitors arrived in Australia and 8.8 million Australians went overseas</a>. A further 33.5 million overnight trips were made domestically. But all this travel comes at a cost. According to the <a href="http://tourismdashboard.org/explore-the-data/carbon-emissions/">Global Sustainable Tourism Dashboard</a>, all Australian domestic trips and one-way international journeys (the other half is attributed to the end point of travel) amount to 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide for 2016. That is 2.7% of global aviation emissions, despite a population of only 0.3% of the global total. The peak month of air travel in and out of Australia is December. Christmas is the time where people travel to see friends and family, or to go on holiday. More and more people are <a href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/analysis-of-a-119-country-survey-predicts-global-climate-change-awareness/">aware of the carbon implications of their travel</a> and want to know whether, for example, they should purchase carbon offsets or not. Our <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699716302538">recent study in the Journal of Air Transport Management</a> showed that about one third of airlines globally offer some form of carbon offsetting to their customers. However, the research also concluded that the information provided to customers is often insufficient, dated and possibly misleading. Whilst local airlines <a href="https://www.qantasfutureplanet.com.au/#aboutus">Qantas</a>, <a href="https://www.virginaustralia.com/nz/en/about-us/sustainability/carbon-offset-program/">Virgin Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/sustainability-customer-carbon-offset">Air New Zealand</a> have relatively advanced and well-articulated carbon offset programs, others fail to offer scientifically robust explanations and accredited mechanisms that ensure that the money spent on an offset generates some real climate benefits. The notion of carbon compensation is actually more difficult than people might think. To help explain why carbon offsetting does make an important climate contribution, but at the same time still adds to atmospheric carbon, we created an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsh-erzGlR0">animated video clip</a>. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xsh-erzGlR0?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Jack’s journey.</figcaption></figure> The video features Jack, a concerned business traveller who begins purchasing carbon credits. However, he comes to the realisation that the carbon emissions from his flights are still released into the atmosphere, despite the credit. The concept of “carbon neutral” promoted by airline offsets means that an equal amount of emissions is avoided elsewhere, but it does not mean there is no carbon being emitted at all – just relatively less compared with the scenario of not offsetting (where someone else continues to emit, in addition to the flight). This means that, contrary to many promotional and educational materials (see <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cGB2OAg5ffA">here</a> for instance), carbon offsetting will not reduce overall carbon emissions. Trading emissions means that we are merely maintaining status quo. A steep reduction, however, is what’s required by every sector if we were to reach the net-zero emissions goal by 2050, agreed on in the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a>. Carbon offsetting is already an important “<a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517714000910">polluter pays</a>” mechanism for travellers who wish to contribute to climate mitigation. But it is also about to be institutionalised at large scale through the new UN-run <a href="https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/market-based-measures.aspx">Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)</a>. CORSIA will come into force in 2021, when participating airlines will have to purchase carbon credits for emissions above 2020 levels on certain routes. The availability of carbon credits and their integrity is of major concern, as well as how they align with national obligations and mechanisms agreed in the Paris Agreement. Of particular interest is <a href="http://www.carbon-mechanisms.de/en/introduction/the-paris-agreement-and-article-6/">Article 6</a>, which allows countries to cooperate in meeting their climate commitments, including by “trading” emissions reductions to count towards a national target. The recent COP23 in Bonn highlighted that CORSIA is widely seen as a potential source of billions of dollars for offset schemes, supporting important climate action. Air travel may provide an important intermediate source of funds, but ultimately the aviation sector, just like anyone else, will have to reduce their own emissions. This will mean major advances in technology – and most likely a contraction in the fast expanding global aviation market. <h2>Travelling right this Christmas</h2> In the meantime, and if you have booked your flights for Christmas travel, you can do the following: <ul> <li> pack light (every kilogram will cost additional fuel) </li> <li> minimise carbon emissions whilst on holiday (for instance by biking or walking once you’re there), and </li> <li> support a <a href="http://www.co2offsetresearch.org/consumer/Standards.html">credible offsetting program</a>. </li> </ul> And it’s worth thinking about what else you can do during the year to minimise emissions – this is your own “carbon budget”.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89148/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susanne-becken-90437">Susanne Becken</a>, Professor of Sustainable Tourism and Director, Griffith Institute for Tourism, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brendan-mackey-152282">Brendan Mackey</a>, Director of the Griffith Climate Change Response Program, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-home-for-christmas-carbon-offsets-are-important-but-they-wont-fix-plane-pollution-89148">original article</a>.

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Will we still have antibiotics in 50 years? We asked 7 global experts

Almost since antibiotics were <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2937522/#:%7E:text=Since%20the%20introduction%20in%201937,operate%20some%2070%20years%20later.">first discovered</a>, we’ve been aware bacteria can learn how to overcome these medicines, a phenomenon known as antimicrobial resistance. The World Health Organization says we’re currently <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/20-09-2017-the-world-is-running-out-of-antibiotics-who-report-confirms">losing to the bugs</a>, with resistance increasing and too few new antibiotics in the pipeline. We wanted to know whether experts around the world think we will still have effective antibiotics in 50 years. Seven out of seven experts said yes. Lori Burrows - Biochemist, Canada Yes! Antibiotics are a crucial component of modern medicine, and we can't afford to lose them. Despite the rise of resistance in important pathogens (bugs), and the substantial decrease in new drugs in development, we have multiple tools at our disposal to protect antibiotics. Stewardship - the principle of using antibiotics only when absolutely necessary - is key to maintaining the usefulness of current antibiotics and preventing resistance to new drugs from arising. New diagnostics, such as the rapid tests that became widely available during the pandemic, can inform stewardship efforts, reducing inappropriate antibiotic use for viral diseases. Finally, researchers continue to find creative ways, including the use of powerful artificial intelligence approaches, to identify antimicrobial compounds with new targets or new modes of action. Other promising tactics include using viruses that naturally kill bacteria, stimulating the host's immune system to fight the bacteria, or combining existing antibiotics with molecules that can enhance antibiotic activity by, for example, increasing uptake or blocking resistance. André Hudson - Biochemist, United States Yes. The real question is not whether we will have antibiotics 50 years from now, but what form of antibiotics will be used. Most antibiotics we use today are modelled after natural products isolated from organisms such as fungi and plants. The use of <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2020/artificial-intelligence-identifies-new-antibiotic-0220">AI</a>, machine learning, and other <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/25/artificial-intelligence-antibiotic-deadly-superbug-hospital">computational tools</a> to help design novel, unnatural compounds that can circumvent the evolution of antibiotic resistance are only in the very early stages of development. Many of the traditional medicines such as penicillins and other common antibiotics of today which are already waning in efficacy, will probably be of very little use in 50 years. Over time, with the aid of new technology, I predict we will have new medicines to fight bacterial infections. Ray Robins-Browne - Microbiologist, Australia Yes, we will have antibiotics (by which I mean antimicrobial drugs), because people will still get infections despite advances in immunisation and other forms of prevention. Having said this, drugs of the future will be quite different from those we use today, which will have become obsolete well within the next 50 years. The new drugs will have a narrow spectrum, meaning they will be targeted directly at the specific cause of the infection, which we will determine by using rapid, point-of-care diagnostic tests, similar to the RATS we currently use to diagnose COVID. Antimicrobials of the future won’t kill bacteria or limit their growth, because this encourages the development of resistance. Instead, they will limit the ability of the bacteria to cause disease or evade our immune systems. Raúl Rivas González - Microbiologist, Spain Yes, but not without effort. Currently, antimicrobial resistance is a leading cause of death globally, and will continue to rise. But in my opinion, there will still be useful antibiotics to combat bacterial infections within 50 years. To achieve this, innovation and investment is required. Artificial intelligence may even be able to help. An example is the compound "RS102895", which eliminates the multi-resistant superbug Acinetobacter baumannii. This was identified through a machine learning algorithm. The future of antibiotics requires substantial changes in the search for new active molecules and in the design of therapies that can eliminate bacteria without developing resistance. We are on the right path. An example is the discovery of clovibactin, recently isolated from uncultured soil bacteria. Clovibactin effectively kills antibiotic-resistant gram-positive bacteria without generating detectable resistance. Future antimicrobial therapy may consist of new antibiotics, viruses that kill bacteria, specific antibodies, drugs that counter antibiotic resistance, and other new technology. Fidelma Fitzpatrick - Microbiologist, United Kingdom Yes, but not many. Without rapid scale-up of measures to curtail the "<a href="https://www.oecd.org/health/embracing-a-one-health-framework-to-fight-antimicrobial-resistance-ce44c755-en.htm">alarming global health threat</a>" of antimicrobial resistance by 2073, there will be few effective antibiotics left to treat sepsis. The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/covid19.html">Centre for Disease Control</a> has indicated a reversal of progress following the pandemic, when all focus in healthcare, government and society was on COVID. Without an approach targeting people, animals, agri-food systems and the environment, antimicrobial resistance will continue its upward trajectory. <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/publication/drug-resistant-infections-a-threat-to-our-economic-future">Doing nothing</a> is unacceptable – lives will be lost, healthcare expenditure will increase and workforce productivity will suffer. The highest burden of antimicrobial resistance is in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02724-0/fulltext">low-income countries</a>. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK543407/">Action plans</a> exist in most OECD, European and G20 countries. In all countries plans need to be funded and implemented across all relevant sectors as above. Better integrated data to track antibiotic use and resistance across human and animal health and the environment, in addition to research and development for new antibiotics, vaccines and diagnostics, will be necessary. Juliana Côrrea - Public health expert, Brazil Yes. However, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0188440905002730?via%3Dihub">available data</a> suggest that without a shift in the political agenda towards the control and prevention of antimicrobial resistance, several antibiotics will have lost their utility. The problem of bacterial resistance is not new and the risk of antibiotics becoming ineffective in the face of the evolutionary capacity of bacteria is one of the main problems facing global health. The creation of policies to promote the appropriate use of this resource has not progressed at the same speed as inappropriate use in human and animal health and in agricultural production. The factors that impact antibiotic use are complex and vary according to local contexts. The response to the problem goes far beyond controlling use at the individual level. We must recognise the social, political, and economic dimensions in proposing more effective governance. Yori Yuliandra - Pharmacist, Indonesia Yes. Despite their <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance">reduced efficacy over time</a>, antibiotics continue to be produced every year. Researchers are tirelessly working to develop new and more effective antibiotics. And researchers are actively exploring combinations of antibiotics to enhance their efficacy. While antimicrobial resistance is rising, researchers have been making remarkable progress in addressing this issue. They have developed innovative antibiotic classes such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.4155/fmc-2016-0041">FtsZ inhibitors</a> which can inhibit cell division, a process necessary for bacteria to multiply. <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240021303">Clinical trials</a> are currently taking place. A deeper understanding of the molecular aspects of bacterial resistance has led to the discovery of new treatment strategies, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D2MD00263A">inhibition of key enzymes</a> that play a pivotal role in bugs becoming resistant. And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-02586-0">advances in computer technology</a> have greatly accelerated drug discovery and development efforts, offering hope for the rapid discovery of new antibiotics and treatment strategies. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-we-still-have-antibiotics-in-50-years-we-asked-7-global-experts-214950" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

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6 reasons why global temperatures are spiking right now

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> The world is very warm right now. We’re not only seeing record temperatures, but the records are being broken by record-wide margins. Take the preliminary September global-average temperature anomaly of 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, for example. It’s an incredible 0.5°C above the previous record. So why is the world so incredibly hot right now? And what does it mean for keeping our Paris Agreement targets? Here are six contributing factors – with climate change the main reason temperatures are so high. <h2>1. El Niño</h2> One reason for the exceptional heat is we are in a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean">significant El Niño</a> that is still strengthening. During El Niño we see warming of the surface ocean over much of the tropical Pacific. This warming, and the effects of El Niño in other parts of the world, raises global average temperatures by <a href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/01/2022-updates-to-the-temperature-records/">about 0.1 to 0.2°C</a>. Taking into account the fact we’ve just come out of a triple La Niña, which cools global average temperatures slightly, and the fact this is the first major El Niño in eight years, it’s not too surprising we’re seeing unusually high temperatures at the moment. Still, El Niño alone isn’t enough to explain the crazily high temperatures the world is experiencing. <h2>2. Falling pollution</h2> Air pollution from human activities cools the planet and has offset some of the warming caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. There have been efforts to reduce this pollution – since 2020 there has been an <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/imo-advances-measures-to-reduce-emissions-from-international-shipping/">international agreement</a> to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions from the global shipping industry. It has been speculated this cleaner air has contributed to the recent heat, particularly over the record-warm <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-breaking-north-atlantic-ocean-temperatures-contribute-extreme-marine-heatwaves">north Atlantic</a> and Pacific regions with high shipping traffic. It’s likely this is contributing to the extreme high global temperatures – but only on the order of hundredths of a degree. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/">Recent analysis</a> suggests the effect of the 2020 shipping agreement is about an extra 0.05°C warming by 2050. <h2>3. Increasing solar activity</h2> While falling pollution levels mean more of the Sun’s energy reaches Earth’s surface, the amount of the energy the Sun emits is itself variable. There are different solar cycles, but an 11-year cycle is the most relevant one to today’s climate. The Sun is becoming <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/14/world/solar-maximum-activity-2024-scn/index.html">more active</a> from a minimum in late 2019. This is also contributing a small amount to the spike in global temperatures. Overall, increasing solar activity is contributing only hundredths of a degree at most to the recent global heat. <h2>4. Water vapour from Hunga Tonga eruption</h2> On January 15 2022 the underwater <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26006-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-eruption">Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano erupted</a> in the South Pacific Ocean, sending large amounts of water vapour high up into the upper atmosphere. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so increasing its concentration in the atmosphere in this way does intensify the greenhouse effect. Even though the eruption happened almost two years ago, it’s still having a small warming effect on the planet. However, as with the reduced pollution and increasing solar activity, we’re talking about hundredths of a degree. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6oANPi-SWN0?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>5. Bad luck</h2> We see variability in global temperatures from one year to the next even without factors like El Niño or major changes in pollution. Part of the reason this September was so extreme was likely due to weather systems being in the right place to heat the land surface. When we have persistent high-pressure systems over land regions, as seen recently over places like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/01/autumn-heat-continues-in-europe-after-record-breaking-september">western Europe</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-19/australia-weather-september-heat-records-tumble/102870294">Australia</a>, we see local temperatures rise and the conditions for unseasonable heat. As water requires more energy to warm and the ocean moves around, we don’t see the same quick response in temperatures over the seas when we have high-pressure systems. The positioning of weather systems warming up many land areas coupled with persistent ocean heat is likely a contributor to the global-average heat too. <h2>6. Climate change</h2> By far the biggest contributor to the overall +1.7°C global temperature anomaly is human-caused climate change. Overall, humanity’s effect on the climate has been a global warming of <a href="https://www.globalwarmingindex.org/">about 1.2°C</a>. The record-high rate of greenhouse gas emissions means we should expect global warming to accelerate too. While humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions explain the trend seen in September temperatures over many decades, they don’t really explain the big difference from last September (when the greenhouse effect was almost as strong as it is today) and September 2023. Much of the difference between this year and last comes back to the switch from La Niña to El Niño, and the right weather systems in the right place at the right time. <h2>The upshot: we need to accelerate climate action</h2> September 2023 shows that with a combination of climate change and other factors aligning we can see alarmingly high temperatures. These anomalies may appear to be above the 1.5°C global warming level referred to in the Paris Agreement, but that’s about keeping <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/understanding-the-paris-agreements-long-term-temperature-goal/">long-term global warming</a> to low levels and not individual months of heat. But we are seeing the effects of climate change unfolding more and more clearly. The most vulnerable are suffering the biggest impacts as wealthier nations continue to emit the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Humanity must accelerate the path to net zero to prevent more record-shattering global temperatures and damaging extreme events.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215140/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-reasons-why-global-temperatures-are-spiking-right-now-215140">original article</a>.

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Research reveals who’s been hit hardest by global warming in their lifetime - and the answer may surprise you

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ed-hawkins-104793">Ed Hawkins</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-reading-902">University of Reading</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hunter-douglas-1460792">Hunter Douglas</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/te-herenga-waka-victoria-university-of-wellington-1200">Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/luke-harrington-489028">Luke Harrington</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-waikato-781">University of Waikato</a> Earth is warming and the signs of climate change are everywhere. We’ve seen it in the past few weeks as temperatures hit record highs around the world – both in the Northern Hemisphere and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">warm Australian winter</a>. Global warming is caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions, which continue at <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">near-record pace</a>. These emissions are predominantly generated by people in the world’s wealthiest regions. Our world-first analysis, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/aceff2">published today</a>, examines the experience of global warming over the lifetimes of people around the world: young and old, rich and poor. We sought to identify who has perceived warmer temperatures most keenly. We found middle-aged people in equatorial regions have lived through the most perceptible warming in their lifetimes. But many young people in lower-income countries could experience unrecognisable changes in their local climate later in life, unless the world rapidly tackles climate change. <h2>Measuring the climate change experience</h2> We examined temperature data and population demographics information from around the world. Key to our analysis was the fact that not all warming is due to human activity. Some of it is caused by natural, year-to-year variations in Earth’s climate. These natural ups and downs are due to a number of factors. They include variations in the energy Earth receives from the sun, the effects of volcanic eruptions, and transfers of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean. This variability is stronger in mid-to-high-latitude parts of the world (those further from the equator) than in low-latitude areas (in equatorial regions). That’s because the weather systems further away from the equator draw in hot or cold air from neighbouring areas, but equatorial areas don’t receive cold air at all. That’s why, for example, the annual average temperature in New York is naturally more variable than in the city of Kinshasa (in the Democratic Republic of Congo). To account for this, we applied what’s known as the “<a href="https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/346.htm#:%7E:text=The%20%EF%BF%BDsignal%20to%20noise,to%20this%20natural%20variability%20noise.">signal-to-noise ratio</a>” at each location we studied. That allowed us to separate the strength of the climate change “signal” from the “noise” of natural variability. Making this distinction is important. The less naturally variable the temperature, the clearer the effects of warming. So warming in Kinshasa over the past 50 years has been much more perceptible than in New York. Our study examined two central questions. First, we wanted to know, for every location in the world, how clearly global warming could be perceived, relative to natural temperature variability. Second, we wanted to know where this perceived change was most clear over human lifetimes. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Annual-average temperatures at four major cities with signal-to-noise ratios shown for 20, 50 and 80 years up to 2021." /></a><figcaption>Annual-average temperatures at four major cities with signal-to-noise ratios shown for 20, 50 and 80 years up to 2021. Author provided</figcaption></figure> <h2>Our results</h2> So what did we find? As expected, the most perceptible warming is found in tropical regions – those near the equator. This includes developing parts of the world that constitute the Global South – such as Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia. Household incomes in the Global South are typically lower than in industrialised nations (known as the Global North). We might, then, conclude people in the poorest parts of the world have experienced the most perceptible global warming over their lifetimes. But that’s not always the case. Why? Because most parts of the Global South have younger populations than wealthier regions. And some people under the age of 20, including in northern India and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, haven’t experienced warming over their lifetimes. In these places, the lack of recent warming is likely down to a few factors: natural climate variability, and the local cooling effect of particles released into the atmosphere from <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3b7a">pollution</a> and changes in land use. There’s another complication. Some populated regions of the world also experienced slight cooling in the mid-20th century, primarily driven by human-caused <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10946">aerosol emissions</a>. So, many people born earlier than the 1950s have experienced less perceptible warming in their local area than those born in the 1960s and 1970s. This may seem counter-intuitive. But a cooling trend in the first few decades of one’s life means the warming experienced over an entire lifespan (from birth until today) is smaller and less detectable. So what does all this mean? People in equatorial areas born in the 1960s and 1970s – now aged between about 45 and 65 – have experienced more perceptible warming than anyone else on Earth. <h2>Rich countries must act</h2> Our findings are important, for several reasons. Identifying who has experienced significant global warming in their lives may help explain <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2660">attitudes to tackling climate change</a>. Our findings also raise significant issues of fairness and equity. Humanity will continue to warm the planet until we reach global net-zero emissions. This means many young people in lower-income countries may, later in life, experience a local climate that is unrecognisable to that of their youth. Of course, warming temperatures are not the only way people experience climate change. Others include sea-level rise, more intense drought and rainfall extremes. We know many of these impacts are felt most acutely by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/5/11/climate-change-is-devastating-the-global-south">the most vulnerable populations</a>. Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions are much higher in the Global North, due to economic development. To address this inequality, rich industrialised nations must take a leading role in reducing emissions to net-zero, and helping vulnerable countries adapt to climate change.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211108/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ed-hawkins-104793">Ed Hawkins</a>, Professor of Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-reading-902">University of Reading</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hunter-douglas-1460792">Hunter Douglas</a>, PhD Candidate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/te-herenga-waka-victoria-university-of-wellington-1200">Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/luke-harrington-489028">Luke Harrington</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-waikato-781">University of Waikato</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-reveals-whos-been-hit-hardest-by-global-warming-in-their-lifetime-and-the-answer-may-surprise-you-211108">original article</a>.

Travel Trouble

How air travellers can cut their door-to-door emissions right now – by as much as 13% on the Sydney-Melbourne route

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rico-merkert-90253">Rico Merkert</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-li-1460445">David Li</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> Our climate is changing, and airlines are under pressure to reduce emissions from air travel. For many of us, especially in Australia, flying is an essential form of transport, so how can we reduce its environmental impact? Getting to and from the airport is an overlooked aspect of air travel that offers an immediate way to cut total carbon emissions from the trip by a surprisingly large amount. Our newly published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920923002468">research</a> shows for an average economy passenger flying from Sydney to Melbourne, the carbon emissions from using a fossil-fuelled car to get to and from the airports make up a staggering 13.5% of the total door-to-door emissions. At a global scale, this number reaches 12.1% for long-haul flights and up to 22.8% for short-haul air journeys. For comparison, in the International Air Transport Association’s <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/programs/environment/roadmaps/">2050 net-zero emission roadmap</a>, 13% of global airline decarbonisation will come from electric and hydrogen propulsion. A further 65% is to come from mass adoption of sustainable aviation fuel. This is fuel produced from non-petroleum-based renewable sources such as some municipal solid waste, woody biomass, fats, greases and oils. Each of these big lifters requires a mammoth level of investment and technological breakthroughs, and comes with limitations and risks. Some solutions might make air travel prohibitively expensive. Airlines are moving mountains to decarbonise, but there are increasing concerns their net-zero plans might not stack up. In contrast, a 13.5% emission reduction on a Sydney-Melbourne door-to-door journey today may sound like a dream. Yet our research shows it’s easily achievable if travellers can be persuaded to change how they get to and from the airport. <h2>So how can travellers be convinced to switch?</h2> <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/agricultural-and-resource-economics-review/article/future-of-carbon-labeling-factors-to-consider/FDBC62244F2ACA29A7602886085B4A91">Research</a> has shown carbon “labelling” helps shift consumer behaviour towards greener choices. It’s a bit like how the nutrition label on the back of our cereal box helps us choose healthier options. For instance, when searching for a flight on online travel platform Skyscanner, all flight options are displayed with carbon emissions, so consumers can make a more informed choice. Two <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/5n53672m">recent</a> <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/03611981211046924">studies</a> at the University of California, Davis, suggest showing consumers the emission outcomes of different gate-to-gate flight choices, such as aircraft types and transit stops, can prompt them to choose greener flights, reducing emissions by up to 3.8%. But air journeys don’t start or end at airports. They start at home and end at destinations, or vice versa. Our air-travel carbon emissions are divided into ground and air segments and counted as airport and airline emissions respectively. While airlines focus on gate-to-gate decarbonisation through future technologies, the door-to-door emissions produced by travel to and from airports can be reduced immediately. Let’s look at an example of a Sydney-to-Melbourne trip. Say you travel from North Sydney to Sydney Airport by car, then fly to Melbourne Airport and catch a taxi to the city centre. That trip emits 82 kilograms of CO₂ door-to-door. But if you use a train, bus or electric vehicle (charged from a renewable source) to travel to and from the airport, the emissions from your trip drop to 71kg: a 13.5% fall door-to-door. Although travel platforms are increasingly communicating gate-to-gate emissions to consumers, we’re not aware of any that are including door-to-door emissions. Helping climate-conscious consumers understand the door-to-door carbon impact of airport ground connections could drive them to choose greener options such as public transport and electric vehicles. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541364/original/file-20230807-15-mp3dlr.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Google Flights chart of air travel options showing emissions and cost" /></a><figcaption>Travel aggregator search platforms are now labelling carbon emissions when offering flight options. Google Flights</figcaption></figure> <h2>Give airlines an incentive to inform passengers</h2> Governments and airports have long collaborated in driving consumers towards greener ground transit options. For instance, Transport for NSW has set a 50% emission-reduction <a href="https://www.future.transport.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-09/Future_Transport_Strategy_2.pdf">target</a> for 2030. However, consumer adoption of these options has remained low. <a href="https://www.ttf.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/TTF_Accessing_Sydney_Airport.pdf">Most airport trips</a> in Australia today are still made by conventional car. As consumers, we have relationships with airlines that we don’t have with airports. When it comes to flying, we choose our airline carefully. Yet we rarely think about how we get to the airport. Airlines are experts in customer communication and engagement. They operate some of the largest frequent-flyer programs in the world. Last time we checked, Qantas had <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/frequent-flyer/qantas">15 million</a> program members and Virgin had <a href="https://newsroom.virginaustralia.com/release/velocity-frequent-flyer-soars-11-million-members">11 million</a>. Through these channels, airlines learn about us and how we tick when it comes to making flying choices. This puts them in an ideal position to keep us informed about door-to-door travel and drive the transition towards greener airport ground-connection options. To give them an incentive to do so, their efforts should be recognised through emission accounting. <h2>A cost-effective way to cut emissions</h2> Travellers using the Sydney Airport train station must pay an <a href="https://www.opal.com.au/en/opal-fares/airport_station_access_fee/">access fee</a>, which adds <a href="https://airportlink.com.au/trip-information/price/">A$15.74</a> to the cost of the journey. As our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920923002468">paper</a> highlights, the average customer using the airport train removes 2.7kg of CO₂. Achieving the same amount of decarbonisation during the flight using more sustainable aviation fuel – which is more expensive – would cost the customer about the same: between $10 and $16. So there is an opportunity for airlines to highlight this decarbonisation outcome as a way to persuade travellers to reconsider driving a car or catching a taxi, and instead take the airport train or bus. Airlines could also consider collaborating with airports to build airport charging facilities for electric vehicles as uptake in Australia approaches a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/31/australian-electric-vehicles-ev-sales-rise-increase">double-digit share</a> of new vehicle sales. This overlooked opportunity to cut door-to-door emissions from air travel has a substantial upside. It deserves far more attention from airlines, airports and consumers.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211099/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rico-merkert-90253">Rico Merkert</a>, Professor in Transport and Supply Chain Management and Deputy Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), University of Sydney Business School, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-li-1460445">David Li</a>, PhD Candidate, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-air-travellers-can-cut-their-door-to-door-emissions-right-now-by-as-much-as-13-on-the-sydney-melbourne-route-211099">original article</a>.

Domestic Travel

Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2030s, say scientists – this would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-bamber-102567">Jonathan Bamber</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-bristol-1211">University of Bristol</a> The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion of a new study in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8">Nature Communications</a>. Predictions of an ice-free Arctic Ocean have a long and complicated history, and the 2030s is sooner than most scientists had thought possible (though it is later than some had wrongly forecast). What we know for sure is the disappearance of sea ice at the top of the world would not only be an emblematic sign of climate breakdown, but it would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences. The Arctic has been experiencing climate heating <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-is-warming-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world-new-research-188474">faster than any other part of the planet</a>. As it is at the frontline of climate change, the eyes of many scientists and local indigenous people have been on the sea ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean in winter. This thin film of frozen seawater expands and contracts with the seasons, reaching a minimum area in September each year. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=184&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=184&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=184&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Animation of Arctic sea ice from space" /></a><figcaption>Arctic sea ice grows until March and then shrinks until September. <a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2022/nasa-finds-2022-arctic-winter-sea-ice-10th-lowest-on-record">NASA</a></figcaption></figure> The ice which remains at the end of summer is called multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart. It acts as barrier to the transfer of both moisture and heat between the ocean and atmosphere. Over the past 40 years this multiyear sea ice has shrunk from around <a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-extent0/">7 million sq km to 4 million</a>. That is a loss equivalent to roughly the size of India or 12 UKs. In other words, it’s a big signal, one of the most stark and dramatic signs of fundamental change to the climate system anywhere in the world. As a consequence, there has been considerable effort invested in determining when the Arctic Ocean might first become ice-free in summer, sometimes called a “blue ocean event” and defined as when the sea ice area drops below 1 million sq kms. This threshold is used mainly because older, thicker ice along parts of Canada and northern Greenland is expected to remain long after the rest of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. We can’t put an exact date on the last blue ocean event, but one in the near future would likely mean open water at the North Pole for the first time in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10581">thousands of years</a>. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Annotated map of Arctic" /></a><figcaption>The thickest ice (highlighted in pink) is likely to remain even if the North Pole is ice-free. <a class="source" href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/05/new-tools-for-sea-ice-thickness/">NERC Center for Polar Observation and Modelling</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></figcaption></figure> One problem with predicting when this might occur is that sea ice is notoriously difficult to model because it is influenced by both atmospheric and oceanic circulation as well as the flow of heat between these two parts of the climate system. That means that the climate models – powerful computer programs used to simulate the environment – need to get all of these components right to be able to accurately predict changes in sea ice extent. <h2>Melting faster than models predicted</h2> Back in the 2000s, an assessment of early generations of climate models found they generally <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL029703">underpredicted the loss of sea ice</a> when compared to satellite data showing what actually happened. The models predicted a loss of about 2.5% per decade, while the observations were closer to 8%. The next generation of models did better but were <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL052676">still not matching observations</a> which, at that time were suggesting a blue ocean event would happen by mid-century. Indeed, the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">IPCC climate science report</a>, published in 2021, reaches a similar conclusion about the timing of an ice-free Arctic Ocean. As a consequence of the problems with the climate models, some scientists have attempted to extrapolate the observational record resulting in the controversial and, ultimately, incorrect assertion that this would happen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/21/arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-summer-next-year">during the mid 2010s</a>. This did not help the credibility of the scientific community and its ability to make reliable projections. <h2>Ice-free by 2030?</h2> The scientists behind the latest study have taken a different approach by, in effect, calibrating the models with the observations and then using this calibrated solution to project sea ice decline. This makes a lot of sense, because it reduces the effect of small biases in the climate models that can in turn bias the sea ice projections. They call these “observationally constrained” projections and find that the Arctic could become ice-free in summer as early as 2030, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Walruses on ice floe" /></a><figcaption>Walruses depend on sea ice. As it melts, they’re being forced onto land. outdoorsman / shutterstock</figcaption></figure> There is still plenty of uncertainty around the exact date – about <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL070067">20 years or so</a> – because of natural chaotic fluctuations in the climate system. But compared to previous research, the new study still brings forward the most likely timing of a blue ocean event by about a decade. <h2>Why this matters</h2> You might be asking the question: so what? Other than some polar bears not being able to hunt in the same way, why does it matter? Perhaps there are even benefits as the previous US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/06/politics/pompeo-sea-ice-arctic-council/index.html">once declared</a> – it means ships from Asia can potentially save around 3,000 miles of journey to European ports in summer at least. But Arctic sea ice is an important component of the climate system. As it dramatically reduces the amount of sunlight absorbed by the ocean, removing this ice is predicted to further accelerate warming, through a process known as a positive feedback. This, in turn, will make the Greenland ice sheet <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059770">melt faster</a>, which is already a major contributor to <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021RG000757">sea level rise</a>. The loss of sea ice in summer would also mean changes in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/ccp6/">atmospheric circulation and storm tracks</a>, and fundamental shifts in ocean biological activity. These are just some of the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021RG000757">highly undesirable consequences</a> and it is fair to say that the disadvantages will far outweigh the slender benefits. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-bamber-102567">Jonathan Bamber</a>, Professor of Physical Geography, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-bristol-1211">University of Bristol</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-ocean-could-be-ice-free-in-summer-by-2030s-say-scientists-this-would-have-global-damaging-and-dangerous-consequences-206974">original article</a>. Images: Getty

Travel Trouble

Three Aussie regions set to be unliveable

Three major economic centres are set to become uninhabitable by the end of the century as global temperatures are on track to warm by 2.7C. It is predicted that Broome, Darwin and Port Hedland in WA are to be pushed outside the “human climate niche”, referring to the temperature and humidity conditions in which humans can survive. The destinations are just three of the many northwestern sections of Australia facing “niche displacement” in the next 70 years. New research by The University of Exeter, published in the science journal Nature Sustainability in May 2023, calculates the human cost of climate inaction based on current insufficient policies and government inaction. According to the report, two million people will be living with unprecedented mean average temperatures (MAT) above 29C. MAT >29C is the point at which wellbeing scientifically declines, labour productivity and cognitive ability shrinks, negative pregnancy outcomes are emancipated and mortality rates soar. The report calculates that twenty per cent of Australia, around 374,977 Aussies, will be negatively impacted by the 2.7C temperature increase. Those Australians would join a third of the world’s population, including Africa, South America, and South-East Asia. A 3C warmer temperature in Darwin would mean that for 265 days of the year, temperatures would reach above 35C. At 40C, humidity soars and temperatures become lethal, the Australian Academy of Science reports. The University of Exeter report also explained the effects of a “wet-bulb temperature” where temperature and humidity are combined. In temperatures above 28C (WBT) body struggles to cool itself by sweating, and fails to do so in temperatures above 35C (WBT), which can be fatal. By limiting global warming to 1.5C, which is the goal of the Paris Agreement, 80 per cent of those at risk of rising temperatures would remain in their climate niche. However, scientists warn that a 1.5C will still cause severe and irreversible effects on people, wildlife and ecosystems. Global warming currently sits at 1.2C, but new research from The World Meteorological Organisation suggests there is a 66 per cent chance at least one year in the next five will breach the 1.5C threshold. “Despite increased pledges and targets to tackle climate change, current policies still leave the world on course for about 2.7C end-of-century global warming,” The University of Exeter report said. “These results highlight the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.” The report also found the impacts of rising temperatures will not be felt equally, as estimates of the human cost of climate change “tend to be expressed in monetary terms”. “(Estimates) tends to recognise impacts on the rich more than those on the poor (because the rich have more money to lose) and tend to value those living now over those living in the future (because future damages are subject to economic discounting),” the report said. “From an equity standpoint, this is unethical — when life or health are at stake, all people should be considered equal, whether rich or poor, alive or yet to be born.” Image credit: Shutterstock

Domestic Travel

COVID is officially no longer a global health emergency – here’s what that means (and what we’ve learned along the way)

World Health Organisation (WHO) experts <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/05/health/covid-who-emergency-end.html">have officially declared</a> that COVID <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/05-05-2023-statement-on-the-fifteenth-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-pandemic">no longer constitutes</a> a public health emergency of international concern (Pheic). This coincides with the WHO’s new <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-WHE-SPP-2023.1">strategy</a> to transition from an emergency response to longer-term sustained COVID disease management. This may not change too much practically. COVID will still have pandemic status, and countries will continue to have their own authority as to whether to treat COVID as an emergency within their territories (some countries, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/04/11/1169191865/biden-ends-covid-national-emergency">including the US</a>, have already declared an end to the national emergency). For the global public health community, however, this is an event of monumental importance, drawing to a close the emergency response period which commenced on <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern-(pheic)-global-research-and-innovation-forum">January 30 2020</a>. At the same time, for a large portion of the general public, it may well pass by relatively unnoticed. For many people, it’s been a long time since they viewed COVID as an emergency. In the UK for example, COVID no longer features in the regular Office for National Statistics <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/19aprilto1may2023">public opinion survey</a> that asks people what they think the key issues facing the country are. Even a year ago, <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/30marchto24april2022">only two in five Britons</a> were very or somewhat worried about COVID, according to the survey. Along with other behavioural scientists, I have been following <a href="https://www.swansea.ac.uk/research/research-highlights/health-innovation/public-during-pandemic/">public experiences of the pandemic</a> for the past three years. The results have yet to be peer reviewed but by summer 2022, many participants in <a href="https://psyarxiv.com/d6jcv">our research</a> described the pandemic as being like “a distant memory” or like it “never happened”. As we move into this next phase, it’s time to consider what we’ve learned about human behaviour during the pandemic, and what happens next. <h2>Old habits die hard</h2> In the early days of the pandemic, many behavioural scientists, myself included, wondered whether some of our pandemic habits <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-years-into-the-pandemic-which-of-our-newly-formed-habits-are-here-to-stay-178204">were here to stay</a>. Would <a href="https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2021-04-02/masks-to-stay-soldiering-on-through-the-common-cold-will-stop-and-the-nature-of-work-has-changed-forever-expert-says">face masks</a> become a regular wardrobe staple? Would people stop “soldiering on” and going into work when unwell? It turned out that for most people, the pandemic hasn’t permanently changed our behaviour and habits or created a “<a href="https://psyarxiv.com/d6jcv">new normal</a>”. Looking again at the UK, face mask use has consistently declined, with <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/datasets/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritaincoronaviruscovid19andotherillnesses">figures from last month</a> suggesting that fewer than one in six adults had worn a face mask recently. Regular use is likely much less common. Social distancing has long since disappeared, except for a relatively small proportion of the public, in particular those most vulnerable to COVID. The COVID pandemic has taught us how adaptive behaviour can be, in particular how much people were willing to change their behaviour to keep themselves and others safe. Most people <a href="https://academic.oup.com/abm/article/56/8/781/6618645?login=false">followed the rules</a> during <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258781">the height of the pandemic</a>, no matter how difficult. COVID has reminded us <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/759BE02FFE73E5C05EA429A3E1547D78/S2056467821000050a.pdf/resilience_in_the_age_of_covid19.pdf">how resilient we humans can be</a>. These pandemic adaptions, and the fact that our pre-pandemic behaviour bounced back so quickly, shows how important social cues and social norms are to behaviour. Putting on a mask or keeping our distance from others were habits – <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002210311100254X">actions triggered automatically</a> in response to contextual cues, such as seeing signs with pictures of people socially distancing. Social norms – what we think others are doing – were key to <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0277360">vaccine uptake</a> and to our uptake of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z">preventative measures in general</a>. As these contextual cues disappeared and the social norms started to change, and as vaccine coverage increased and the risk to the majority decreased, our behaviour changed. The pandemic has also demonstrated how important social connections and social, especially physical, contact can be. This is something <a href="https://theconversation.com/handshakes-and-hugs-are-good-for-you-its-vital-they-make-a-comeback-after-the-pandemic-158174">we have already argued</a> COVID couldn’t keep at bay forever. According to social safety theory, which sees stress and wellbeing as a product of biological, psychological and social factors, COVID <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352250X2200001X">posed a threat</a> to the “social fabric that makes humans resilient and keeps us alive and well”. It’s unsurprising that life satisfaction and happiness were <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/7/e039334">lowest during lockdowns</a>, and <a href="https://www.covidsocialstudy.org/_files/ugd/064c8b_c525505ffa6b432f96dc41d6b6a985ea.pdf">recovered as people started to mix socially again</a>. <h2>The emergency isn’t over for everyone</h2> As we mark the end of the emergency phase it’s important to remember the <a href="https://covid19.who.int/">nearly seven million lives lost</a> due to COVID since 2020. And of course, we must consider that for some, especially those who are clinically vulnerable, the emergency is not yet over, and may never be. Although it’s no longer a Pheic, <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-WHE-SPP-2023.1">as the WHO reminds us</a>, COVID is still responsible for millions of infections and thousands of deaths each week around the world. Also, thanks to long COVID, hundreds of millions of people are in need of longer-term care. In the future, we need to move from relying on the resilience of individuals to building resilience in our institutions. We can all take measures to continue to protect ourselves and those around us from COVID and other respiratory viruses (such as by <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)00021-1/fulltext">hand washing</a> and keeping up to date with vaccinations). But responsibility for preventing public health emergencies shouldn’t rest <a href="https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/17/uks-coronavirus-policy-places-too-much-responsibility-in-the-hands-of-the-public/">solely in the hands of the public</a> Actions that governments, employers and health authorities can take now could <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/may/11/preventable-by-devi-sridhar-review-a-resolutely-global-view-of-covid">protect against</a> future <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34872923/">public health emergencies</a>. Systematically <a href="https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news/misinformation-covid-19-what-did-we-learn-2023-02-21_en">tackling misinformation</a>, <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240021280">improving ventilation</a> in <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o327">schools</a>, workplaces and other public indoor spaces, and making longer-term improvements to paid sick leave are all good ways to start building more <a href="https://unsdg.un.org/resources/executive-summary-un-common-guidance-helping-build-resilient-societies">resilient societies</a> in preparation for the next pandemic. Hopefully this is something we will never see in our lifetimes. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-is-officially-no-longer-a-global-health-emergency-heres-what-that-means-and-what-weve-learned-along-the-way-205080" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Caring

As the global musical phenomenon turns 50, a hip-hop professor explains what the word ‘dope’ means to him

After I finished my Ph.D. in 2017, several newspaper reporters wrote about the job I’d accepted at the University of Virginia as an assistant professor of hip-hop. “A.D. Carson just scored, arguably, the dopest job ever,” one <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/07/03/virginia-ad-carson-hip-hop-professor/435032001/">journalist wrote</a>. The writer may not have meant it the way I read it, but the terminology was significant to me. Hip-hop’s early luminaries transformed the word’s original meanings, using it as a synonym for cool. In the 50 years since, it endures as an expression of respect and praise – and illegal substances. In that context, dope has everything to do with my work. In the year I graduated from college, one of my best friends was sent to federal prison for possession of crack cocaine with intent to distribute. He served nearly a decade and has been back in prison several times since. But before he went to prison, he helped me finish school by paying off my tuition. In a very real way, dope has as much to do with me finishing my studies and becoming a professor as it does with him serving time in a federal prison. <h2>Academic dope</h2> For my Ph.D. dissertation in Rhetorics, Communications, and Information Design, I wrote a <a href="http://phd.aydeethegreat.com/">rap album</a> titled “Owning My Masters: The Rhetorics of Rhymes & Revolutions.” A peer-reviewed, mastered version of the album is due out this summer from University of Michigan Press. Part of my reasoning for writing it that way involved my ideas about dope. I want to question who gets to determine who and what are dope and whether any university can produce expertise on the people who created hip-hop. While I was initially met with <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2016/04/clemson-university-arrests/478455/">considerable resistance</a> for my work at Clemson, the university eventually became supportive and touted “<a href="https://news.clemson.edu/clemson-doctoral-student-produces-rap-album-for-dissertation-it-goes-viral/">a dissertation with a beat</a>.” <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> A Dissertation with a Beat. 🔊🎤 🔊<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Clemson?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Clemson</a> doctoral student produces rap album for dissertation; it goes viral ➡️ <a href="https://t.co/wgiM9LS6k5">https://t.co/wgiM9LS6k5</a> <a href="https://t.co/r1lmBYXV2S">pic.twitter.com/r1lmBYXV2S</a> — Clemson University (@ClemsonUniv) <a href="https://twitter.com/ClemsonUniv/status/845990987440652289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 26, 2017</a></blockquote> Clemson is not the only school to recognize hip-hop as dope. In the 50 years since its start at <a href="https://theconversation.com/hip-hop-holiday-signals-a-turning-point-in-education-for-a-music-form-that-began-at-a-back-to-school-party-in-the-bronx-165525">a back-to-school party</a> in the South Bronx, hip-hop, the culture and its art forms have come a long way to a place of relative prominence in educational institutions. Since 2013, Harvard University has housed the <a href="https://hutchinscenter.fas.harvard.edu/institutes/hiphop-archive-research-institute">Hiphop Archive & Research Institute</a> and the <a href="https://hutchinscenter.fas.harvard.edu/faq/nasir-jones-hiphop-fellowship">Nasir Jones Hiphop Fellowship</a> that funds scholars and artists who demonstrate “exceptional scholarship and creativity in the arts in connection with Hiphop.” UCLA announced an <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/music/story/2022-03-28/ucla-hip-hop-initiative-chuck-d">ambitious Hip Hop Initiative</a> to kick off the golden anniversary. The initiative includes artist residencies, community engagement programs, a book series and a digital archive project. Perhaps my receiving tenure and promotion at the University of Virginia is part of the school’s attempt to help codify the existence of hip-hop scholarship. When I write about “dope,” I’m thinking of Black people like drugs to which the U.S. is addicted. Dope is a frame to help clarify the attempts, throughout American history, at outlawing and <a href="https://www.ilsos.gov/departments/archives/online_exhibits/100_documents/1853-black-law.html">legalizing</a> the presence of Black people and Black culture. As dope, Black people are America’s constant ailment and cure. To me, dope is an aspiration and a methodology to acknowledge and resist America’s steady surveillance, scrutiny and criminalization of Blackness. By this definition, dope is not only what we are, it’s also who we want to be and how we demonstrate our being. Dope is about what we can make with what we are given. Dope is a product of conditions created by America. It is also a product that helped create America. Whenever Blackness has been seen as lucrative, businesses like record companies and institutions like colleges and universities have sought to capitalize. To remove the negative stigmas associated with dope, these institutions cast themselves in roles similar to a pharmacy. Even though I don’t believe academia has the power or authority to bestow hip-hop credibility, a question remains – does having a Ph.D and producing rap music as <a href="https://theconversation.com/hip-hop-professor-looks-to-open-doors-with-worlds-first-peer-reviewed-rap-album-153761">peer-reviewed publications</a>change my dopeness in some way? <h2>Legalizing dope</h2> Though I earned a Ph.D by rapping, my own relationship to hip-hop in academic institutions remains fraught. Part of the problem was noted in 2014 by Michelle Alexander, a legal scholar and author of “<a href="http://newjimcrow.com/">The New Jim Crow</a>,” when she talked about <a href="http://www.drugpolicy.org/resource/new-jim-crow-whats-next-talk-michelle-alexander-and-dpas-asha-bandele">her concerns about</a> the legalization of marijuana in different U.S. states. “In many ways the imagery doesn’t sit right,” she said. “Here are white men poised to run big marijuana businesses … after 40 years of impoverished black kids getting prison time for selling weed, and their families and futures destroyed. Now, white men are planning to get rich doing precisely the same thing?” I feel the same way about dopeness in academia. Since hip-hop has emerged as a global phenomenon largely embraced by many of the “academically trained” music scholars who initially rejected it, how will those scholars and their schools now make way for the people they have historically excluded? This is why that quote about me “scoring, arguably, the dopest job ever” has stuck with me. I wonder if it’s fair to call what I do a form of legalized dope. <h2>America’s dope-dealing history</h2> In the late 1990s, I saw how fast hip-hop had become inescapable across the U.S., even in the small Midwestern town of Decatur, Illinois, where I grew up with my friend who is now serving federal prison time. He and I have remained in contact. Among the things we discuss is how unlikely it is that I would be able to do what I do without his doing what he did. Given the economic realities faced by people after leaving prison, we both know there are limitations to his opportunities if we choose to see our successes as shared accomplishments. Depending on how dope is interpreted, prisons and universities serve as probable destinations for people who make their living with it. It has kept him in prison roughly the same amount of time as it has kept me in graduate school and in my profession. This present reality has historical significance for how I think of dope, and what it means for people to have their existence authorized or legalized, and America’s relationship to Black people. Many of the buildings at Clemson were built in the late 1880s using “<a href="http://glimpse.clemson.edu/convict-labor/">laborers convicted of mostly petty crimes</a>” that the state of South Carolina leased to the university. Similarly, the University of Virginia was built by <a href="https://dei.virginia.edu/resources">renting enslaved laborers</a>. The University also is required by state law to purchase office furniture from a state-owned company that <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/02/14/public-universities-several-states-are-required-buy-prison-industries">depends on imprisoned people for labor</a>. The people who make the furniture are paid very little to do so. The people in the federal prison where my friend who helped me pay for college is now housed work for paltry wages making towels and shirts for the U.S. Army. Even with all of the time and distance between our pasts and present, our paths are still inextricably intertwined – along with all those others on or near the seemingly transient line that divides “legal” and “illegal” dope. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-global-musical-phenomenon-turns-50-a-hip-hop-professor-explains-what-the-word-dope-means-to-him-200872" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Music

Global review shows link between social media use, body image and eating disorders

Body image has remains a <a href="https://www.missionaustralia.com.au/what-we-do/research-impact-policy-advocacy/youth-survey" target="_blank" rel="noopener">top personal concern</a> for young people in Australia, with 76% concerned about the issue. Social media use by teens is rising at the same time – with <a href="https://www.aacap.org/AACAP/Families_and_Youth/Facts_for_Families/FFF-Guide/Social-Media-and-Teens-100.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than 90% on platforms</a> like Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, Snapchat, WeChat and TikTok. While there have long been concerns about the association between social media, body image and eating disorders the connection remains relatively unexplored as a public health issue. Now, researchers from University College London in the UK have undertaken a systematic review of 50 scientific studies across 17 countries showing clear links between social media use and body image concerns. The paper, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001091" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published</a> in PLOS Global Public Health, analyses the relationship between body image or eating disorders in young people and social media use. The researchers identify specific aspects of social media – platforms with an emphasis on photos, and engaging with “fitspiration” and “thinspiration” trends – as the factors most closely linked to body image concerns, disordered eating and poor mental health. Other key risk factors included female gender, high body-mass-index and pre-existing body image concerns. The researchers note further studies are needed into the direction of causality. “For example, do body image dissatisfaction and disordered eating occur because of social media usage, or do these pre-exist, encourage engagement in certain online activities, and result in unfavourable clinically significant outcomes?” they ask. Eating disorders involve disturbed attitudes to body image, pre-occupation with weight and body shape and are associated with significant negative outcomes such as cardiovascular disease, reduced bone density, and psychiatric conditions. In Australia, the <a href="https://butterfly.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Butterfly Foundation</a> reports eating disorders affect around one million people, with the conditions causing more people die each year than the road toll. Image credits: Getty Images This article was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/social-media-use-body-image/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Petra Stock.

Technology

The wellbeing ‘pandemic’ – how the global drive for wellness might be making us sick

Are we in the midst of a wellbeing pandemic? The question may seem curious, even contradictory. But look around, the concept is everywhere and spreading: in the media, in government institutions and transnational organisations, in schools, in workplaces and in the marketplace. To be clear, it’s not just wellbeing’s infectiousness in public discourse that makes it pandemic-like. It’s also the genuine malaise that can be caused by the term’s misuse and exploitation. Do you sense, for example, that your wellbeing is increasingly being scrutinised by peers, managers and insurance companies? Are you noticing an increasing number of advertisements offering products and services that promise enhanced wellbeing through consumption? If so, you’re not alone. But we also need to ask whether this obsession with wellbeing is having the opposite to the desired effect. To understand why, it’s important to look at the origins, politics and complexities of wellbeing, including its strategic deployment in the process of what we call “<a href="https://otagouni-my.sharepoint.com/personal/jacst99p_registry_otago_ac_nz/Documents/Documents/SJ-Wellness/SJ-Conversation-Wellbeing/Jackson-Sam-Dawson-Porter-Frontiers-Sociology-Wellbeing-2022.pdf">wellbeing washing</a>”. <h2>The halo effect</h2> While concerns about wellbeing can be traced to antiquity, the term has emerged as a central feature of contemporary social life. One explanation is that it is often conflated with concepts as diverse as happiness, quality of life, life satisfaction, human flourishing, mindfulness and “wellness”. Wellbeing is flexible, in the sense that it can be easily inserted into a diverse range of contexts. But it’s also surrounded by a kind of halo, automatically bestowed with a positive meaning, similar to concepts such as motherhood, democracy, freedom and liberty. To contest the value and importance of such things is to risk being labelled a troublemaker, a non-believer, unpatriotic or worse. These days, there are two main concepts of wellbeing. The first – subjective wellbeing – emphasises a <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2022.950557/full#B21">holistic measure</a> of an individual’s mental, physical and spiritual health. This perspective is perhaps best reflected in the World Health Organization’s <a href="https://www.corc.uk.net/outcome-experience-measures/the-world-health-organisation-five-well-being-index-who-5/">WHO-5 Index</a>, designed in 1998 to measure people’s subjective wellbeing according to five states: cheerfulness, calmness, vigour, restfulness and fulfilment. Translated into more than 30 languages, the overall influence of the WHO-5 Index should not be underestimated; both governments and corporations have embraced it and implemented policy based on it. But the validity of the index, and others like it, has been questioned. They’re prone to oversimplification and a tendency to marginalise alternative perspectives, including Indigenous approaches to physical and mental health. <h2>Individual responsibility</h2> The second perspective – objective wellbeing – was a response to rising social inequality. It focuses on offering an <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsoc.2022.950557/full#B60">alternative to GDP</a> as a measure of overall national prosperity. One example of this is New Zealand’s <a href="https://www.treasury.govt.nz/information-and-services/nz-economy/higher-living-standards/our-living-standards-framework">Living Standards Framework</a>, which is guided by four operating principles: distribution, resilience, productivity and sustainability. These new and purportedly more progressive measures of national economic and social outcomes signal societal change, optimism and hope. The trouble with such initiatives, however, is that they remain rooted within a particular neoliberal paradigm in which individual behaviour is the linchpin for change, rather than the wider political and economic structures around us. Arguably, this translates into more monitoring and “disciplining” of personal actions and activities. Intentionally or not, many organisations interpret and use wellbeing principles and policies to reinforce existing structures and hierarchies. Consider how the wellbeing agenda is playing out in your organisation or workplace, for example. Chances are you have seen the growth of new departments, work units or committees, policies and programs, wellness workshops – all supposedly linked to health and wellbeing. You may even have noticed the creation of new roles: wellbeing coaches, teams or “champions”. If not, then “lurk with intent” and be on the lookout for the emergence of yoga and meditation offerings, nature walks and a range of other “funtivities” to support your wellbeing. <h2>Wellbeing washing</h2> The danger is that such initiatives now constitute another semi-obligatory work task, to the extent that non-participation could lead to stigmatisation. This only adds to stress and, indeed, unwellness. Deployed poorly or cynically, such schemes represent aspects of “wellbeing washing”. It’s a strategic attempt to use language, imagery, policies and practices as part of an organisation’s “culture” to connote something positive and virtuous. In reality, it could also be designed to enhance productivity and reduce costs, minimise and manage reputational risk, and promote <a href="https://otagouni-my.sharepoint.com/personal/jacst99p_registry_otago_ac_nz/Documents/Documents/SJ-Wellness/SJ-Conversation-Wellbeing/Jackson-Sam-Dawson-Porter-Frontiers-Sociology-Wellbeing-2022.pdf">conformity, control and surveillance</a>. Ultimately, we argue that wellbeing now constitutes a “field of power”; not a neutral territory, but a place where parties advance their own interests, often at the expense of others. As such, it’s essential that scholars, policymakers and citizens explore, as one author <a href="https://www.google.com.au/books/edition/Measuring_Wellbeing/lWBXjk1nocIC?hl=en&gbpv=1&dq=%E2%80%9Cwhat+and+whose+values+are+represented,+which+accounts+dominate,+what+is+their+impact+and+on+whom%E2%80%9D&pg=PA4&printsec=frontcover">put it</a>, “what and whose values are represented, which accounts dominate, what is their impact and on whom”. Because if wellbeing is becoming a pandemic, we may well need the “vaccine” of critical reflection. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wellbeing-pandemic-how-the-global-drive-for-wellness-might-be-making-us-sick-198662" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Caring

Air travel spreads infections globally, but health advice from inflight magazines can limit that

“Travel safe, travel far, travel wide, and travel often,” <a href="https://thoughtcatalog.com/matthew-kepnes/2014/01/53-travel-quotes-to-inspire-you-to-see-the-world/">says</a> <a href="https://www.nomadicmatt.com/">Nomadic Matt</a>, the American who quit his job to travel the world, write about it and coach others to do the same. But there’s a downside to all this travel, with its unprecedented volume of passengers moving from one side of the world to the other, largely by plane. There’s the risk of those passengers spreading infectious diseases and microorganisms resistant to multiple drugs (superbugs) around the world. Yet, our recently published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893919301218">research</a> into health advice provided by inflight magazines shows plane passengers are given practically no advice on how to limit the spread of infectious diseases. Should we be worried about the part air travel plays in spreading infectious diseases? And what can we do about it? How big is the risk? Low airfares and a series of social and economic factors have made global air travel more common than ever. According to the Australian government department of infrastructure, transport, cities and regional development the <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/files/International_airline_activity_CY2018.pdf">number of passengers taking international scheduled flights in 2018 was 41.575 million</a>. But the International Air Transport Association projects passenger demand will <a href="https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2019-02-27-02.aspx">reach 8.2 billion by 2037</a>. There are many examples of infectious diseases spread via international flying. The World Health Organization documented <a href="https://www.who.int/ith/mode_of_travel/tcd_aircraft/en/">transmission of tuberculosis</a> (TB) on board commercial aircraft during long-haul flights during the 1980s. Research published in 2011 documents the <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/17/7/10-1135_article">transmission of influenza</a> on two transcontinental international flights in May 2009. More recently, the current <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-born-between-1966-and-1994-are-at-greater-risk-of-measles-and-what-to-do-about-it-110167">global outbreak of measles</a> in many countries, including the Philippines and the United States, gave rise to the risk of transmission during international travel. In a recent case a <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/alerts/Pages/measles-alert-january.aspx">baby</a> too young to be vaccinated who had <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/measles-alert-after-infectious-baby-flew-from-manila-went-to-central-coast-20190603-p51tzs.html">measles</a> returned from Manilla in the Philippines to Sydney, exposing travellers on that flight to infection. Then there is the risk of transmitting antimicrobial-resistant organisms that cause disease, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-tb-and-am-i-at-risk-of-getting-it-in-australia-75290">multi-drug resistant TB</a>. Recently, patients in Victoria and New South Wales were identified as carrying the drug-resistant fungus <a href="https://www2.health.vic.gov.au/about/news-and-events/healthalerts/candida-auris-case-detected-in-victoria">Candida auris</a>, which they acquired overseas. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27890665">One study</a> estimates that over 300 million travellers visit high-risk areas, such as the western Pacific, Southeast Asia and Eastern Mediterranean, each year worldwide, and more than 20% return as new carriers of resistant organisms. These popular destinations, as well as the Middle East, have high rates of drug resistant organisms. How is this happening? Aircraft move large volumes of people around the world swiftly. But what sets them apart from buses and trains is that passengers are close together, in confined spaces, for a long time. This increases the risk of transmitting infections. Passengers interact with high-touch surfaces, such as tray tables, headsets, seats and handles. We cough, sneeze and touch multiple surfaces multiple times during a flight, with limited opportunities to clean our hands with soap and water. Many infections, such as gastroenteritis and diarrhoea, are spread and contracted by touch and contact. What can we do about it? Providing plane travellers with relevant health advice is one way to limit the spread of infectious diseases via air travel. This would include information and advice on routine hand washing with soap and water, or using alcohol-based hand rubs, and other basic measures including cough etiquette, such as coughing into your elbow and covering your nose and face. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/4/2/102/1847252">Researchers</a> have looked at the role commercial websites and travel agencies might play in providing that advice. And since the 1990s, airline magazines have been <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jtm/article/4/2/102/1847252">highlighted</a> as an underused source of traveller health advice. More than 20 years on, we discovered little has changed. In our recent study, published in the journal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893919301218">Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease</a>, we looked at the content of inflight magazines from 103 airlines issued during January 2019. Of the 47 available online, only a quarter (11) included an official section on passengers’ general health and well-being, of which only two contained information related to infection control and the preventing infectious diseases. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284424/original/file-20190717-173366-w48bmn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Inflight magazines have a potential audience of billions. So why not include advice on hand hygiene and coughing etiquette? <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/1424594042?src=vUDfEziJwFDV7GZr5OYMRA-1-2&studio=1&size=medium_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com</a></figcaption></figure> The first magazine, from a UAE-based airline, had an official section on passenger health and well-being that included very limited relevant content. It advised passengers “with blood diseases or ear, nose and sinus infections should seek medical advice before flying”. There was no further explanation or information, nor were there any strategies to prevent these or other infections. The second magazine, from a USA-based airline, contained general travel health advice, but none specifically about infectious diseases. However there was a full-page, colour advertisement next to the health section. This contained images of many disease causing microorganisms on passengers’ tray tables and advocated the use of a disinfectant wipe for hands and other inflight surfaces. The slogan “because germs are frequent fliers” was displayed across the tray table. This was accompanied by information about the use and effectiveness of disinfectant wipes for hand hygiene and disinfecting surfaces during air travel, public transport use, and in hotels and restaurants. Inflight magazines are valuable assets for airlines and are the source of considerable advertising revenue. They are read by potentially billions of passengers every year. The results of this study show that they are a greatly underused source of information about infection control and measures to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. Airlines should also provide health advice to passengers in other media, in particular video screens, about infection prevention and basic control measures such as hand hygiene, cough etiquette and personal hygiene. Such advice should be provided before, during and after the flight. It could also include destination-related advice for particularly risky travel routes and destinations. More information for passengers Airlines providing health advice to passengers is just one way to limit the spread of infectious diseases and antimicrobial-resistant organisms around the world via air travel. This would need to sit alongside other measures, such as <a href="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/travel-industry-information-center">information and guidelines</a> provided to those who travel via the sea. The simple, low-cost measures highlighted in our research could go a long way to help passengers stay healthy and avoid illness from infectious diseases. At the same time, these measures could reduce the impact of outbreaks of infectious diseases for airlines and society as a whole.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120283/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> Writen by Ramon Zenel Shaban and Cristina Sotomayor-Castillo. Republished with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/air-travel-spreads-infections-globally-but-health-advice-from-inflight-magazines-can-limit-that-120283" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Getty Images

International Travel

Southampton to Shanghai by train – one climate change researcher’s quest to avoid flying

Academics travel a lot. Whether for fieldwork or conferences, we’re often <a href="https://theconversation.com/university-sector-must-tackle-air-travel-emissions-118929">encouraged</a> to do it. Often internationally, invariably by aeroplane. But while globetrotting might make us feel important, a recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619311862">study</a> suggests there’s no connection between academic air-miles and career advancement. With the obvious realities of the climate crisis, and with air travel being the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-wake-up-to-the-devastating-impact-flying-has-on-the-environment-70953">single quickest</a> way an average person can contribute to climate change, some academics are trying to stay on the ground whenever possible. Within a broader <a href="https://www.flightfree.co.uk/">campaign</a> to encourage people to go “flight-free”, there’s a community of <a href="https://academicflyingblog.wordpress.com/">academics</a> challenging the reliance on flying that’s typically sat uneasily at the heart of their careers. I’m a member of that community. I pledged not to fly in 2019 and 2020, and then won a fellowship to study Chinese attitudes to sustainability which required me to go to China for fieldwork. Suddenly, the consequences of my pledge became very real. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285327/original/file-20190723-110154-1grcjbv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>Not only do planes release a lot of CO₂ during flight, the white ‘contrails’ they leave behind warm the atmosphere further. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/passenger-airplanes-on-air-busy-traffic-1089042554?src=lgi_phsJCpzeLwXItWfMbw-1-17&studio=1">FotoHelin/Shutterstock</a></figcaption></figure> Life on the rails When I told my managers that I intended to get to China by train, I was met with a mixture of responses. Some thought I was mad, some admired my principles, some thought I was an awkward bugger. Maybe they were all right. In any case, what I was doing had certainly created more work for myself. I began trying to convince senior staff to release funds from my research budget to arrange visas, and thinking through the nitty-gritty of a trip across Europe, Russia and a big chunk of China itself. The cost of the trains was over £2,000, dwarfing the £700 I could pay for a London to Beijing return flight. Time-wise, the train trip took just under two weeks each way. But in terms of carbon emissions my trip was a steal, contributing <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2019">just 10%</a> of the emissions of the equivalent flights. The cost, complexity and discomfort of such a long solo trip did occasionally make me wonder if it wouldn’t just be easier to fly (answer: it would). But I was determined to honour my pledge and show other academics – by my own extreme example – that it is possible to do international work without flights. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285316/original/file-20190723-110175-szuvp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>The author meets a train guard in Siberia. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> Considering it involved 21 train connections, my journey went surprisingly smoothly. I took a series of “short” trips from Southampton, changing in London, Brussels, Cologne, Berlin and then onto my first sleeper train from Warsaw to Kiev (avoiding Belarus which would have required another visa). My first experience on the Kiev-bound, Soviet-style sleeper train was something of a shock. Unsure of the etiquette when sharing a tiny cabin with two or three others with limited English, I soon learned that body language, Google translate and sharing food breaks the ice. Luckily, my no-flying trip was a recurring source of conversation, fascination and bafflement for many of my fellow travellers. After one night in Kiev, I took another overnight train to Moscow. Russia was something of a test – on my return journey I travelled 2,600 miles between Irkutsk and Moscow, spending 90 hours on a single train. Had this not been a work trip, I would have gladly stopped more often. Making friends with fellow passengers – mainly Russians on work trips or family visits, or European and Chinese tourists doing the bucket list Trans-Siberian route – certainly helped pass the time. The Siberian scenery – millions of trees on a seemingly endless loop – became somewhat repetitive, but the monotony afforded me time to read, write, plan and contemplate. The most spectacular journey was the Trans-Mongolian section, passing the edge of Lake Baikal, the world’s largest lake rimmed with snow-capped mountains, over the green steppes of northern Mongolia, across the Gobi desert, and finally through the mountainous valleys encircling Beijing. It’s hard not to be awed and inspired that these train lines exist in such remote parts of our planet. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1003%2C1003&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1003%2C1003&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285302/original/file-20190723-110154-qqgn2n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>The track stretches for miles across the Mongolian plains. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> Calling at Beijing China now has more high-speed railways than the rest of the world combined, and they do it in style. Beijing to Shanghai, a trip covering 1,300km, takes less than four and a half hours, with a solid internet connection throughout and the most legroom I enjoyed on any of my trips. The downer is that China’s electrified trains will, <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-wrestles-with-insecure-gas-supplies-but-stays-strong-on-longer-term-plan-for-renewables-117445">like most of their electricity</a>, be powered by coal. But on the upside, these trains are likely to take passengers off domestic flights – a lesson for Europe and the US. I enjoyed using them to visit my other field sites in Hangzhou and Ningbo before finally retracing my steps back, over 6,000 miles to the UK, clutching a load of new data, a heap of memories, and a sore back. The focus group data I collected in China, with members of their urban middle classes, has enforced my view that both ‘bottom-up’ social and cultural pressure, as well as “top-down” infrastructure and fiscal policy will be required in any country facing up the complex challenges of climate change. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285360/original/file-20190723-110162-1jhj505.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption>The author at the end of his outward journey in Tiananmen Square. Roger Tyers, Author provided</figcaption></figure> I admit that my story is somewhat privileged – not everyone can take the train to China for work, and I doubt I’ll make a habit of it. Much depends on geography too. The UK is relatively well connected by surface transport options like rail, but many still fly - the UK has the <a href="https://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2018-10-24-02.aspx">third largest</a> air passenger market, behind only the US and China. The bigger policy goal is to make train tickets less expensive relative to flights. In the meantime, academics can play a leadership role, both individually and <a href="https://theconversation.com/researchers-set-an-example-fly-less-111046">institutionally</a>. Universities could consider publishing records of staff flights, building low-carbon travel modes into grant proposals by default, and making videoconferencing facilities fantastic. Recent <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652619311862">research</a> has shown, unsurprisingly, that climate researchers are taken more seriously if they practise what they preach. If we can lead by example in reducing our own flying carbon footprints while still conducting great research, then others – students, policymakers and other professionals – are far more likely to take notice. Writen by Roger Tyers. Republished with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/southampton-to-shanghai-by-train-one-climate-change-researchers-quest-to-avoid-flying-120015" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Getty Images

International Travel

Building and construction emissions and energy use reaches record levels

Despite improvements in energy efficiency, greenhouse pollution levels from the building and construction sector reached an all-time high in 2021. A new report on the building and construction sector by the United Nations Environment Programme released for COP27 found energy demand in buildings – for heating, cooling, lighting and equipment – increased by 4% from 2020 levels. As a result, the sector’s emissions increased 5% compared to 2020. While the increase partly reflects a re-bound in building and construction activities after the pandemic, energy and emissions levels were also above 2019 levels. This is significant because the sector accounts for around a third of total energy demand, the report says. The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the opening forum of COP27 that the future of the planet is in our hands. “…and the clock is ticking. We are in the fight of our lives. And we are losing. Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing. Global temperatures keep rising. And our planet is fast approaching tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible. “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator. “ With the release of the report, UNEP executive director, Inger Andersen added: “If we do not rapidly cut emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, we will be in deeper trouble.” The UNEP report argues investments in energy efficiency must be sustained in the face of growing crises – such as the war in Ukraine and rising energy and living costs – to help with reducing energy demand, avoiding greenhouse gas pollution and reducing energy cost volatility. “The solution may lie in governments directing relief towards low and zero-carbon building investment activities through financial and non-financial incentives,” Andersen says. Also critical to reducing the sector’s emissions are including buildings in climate pledges under the Paris Agreement – known as Nationally Determined Contributions – and mandatory building energy codes. The report’s recommendations include: building coalitions of stakeholders in support of sustainable buildings, governments introducing mandatory building energy codes and government policies, increasing investment in energy efficiency and commitments from industry.  <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=222598&title=Building+and+construction+emissions+and+energy+use+reaches+record+levels" width="1" height="1" />  <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/building-emissions-reach-record-levels/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This article</a> was originally published on Cosmos Magazine and was written by Petra Stock. Image: Getty Images </div>

Real Estate

Sustainable aviation fuels – is Australia being left behind?

Some solutions in renewable energy are relatively easy. Solar panels on roofs for example, or battery powered cars. But our obsession with air travel is significantly harder to decarbonise. Batteries are too heavy except on very short flights, and other zero carbon solutions in aviation are few and far between. Without removing air travel altogether, the next best thing is something called ‘sustainable aviation fuels’ or SAFs. While many other countries are ramping up their SAF production and already mixing it in with traditional fuels, Australia is being left behind. “It’s a shame if Qantas meets its 10 per cent sustainable aviation fuel target in 2030 by just buying it offshore,” said Qantas CEO Alan Joyce earlier this year. “That would be terrible outrage in my mind, and it’s a terrible dropping of the ball in Australia.” <h2>What is sustainable aviation fuel?</h2> SAFs are lower carbon fuels. They can be made of either biomass like waste oil or alcohol – called biofuels, or built chemically, brick-by-brick from carbon dioxide and green hydrogen – called e-fuels. Biofuels particularly are not a zero-carbon alternative, but they are markedly better than traditional fossil fuel-based jet fuel. These fuels can be used just by themselves – called 100% SAF-powered – and they have very similar chemistry to traditional fossil jet fuel so they’re just as effective. The problem though is the cost. They’re up to four times as expensive as traditional jet fuel, and around the world there’s just not that much of it on the market – less than 1% of jet fuel available. “Aviation fuels represent about 7-8% of all fuel consumption I believe, and of course in a country like Australia it’s an even bigger part of our liquid fuel consumption,” Lars Nielsen, a professor at the Australian Institute of Bioengineering and Nanotechnology, told Cosmos. “A very large part of the cost of flying is the aviation fuel. Nobody’s jumping to pay more for flying to Europe, therefore, it’s market demand. Are the customers willing to pay the extra price that would be involved with it?” As we decarbonise other areas of emissions – like electricity, transport and agriculture – aviation emissions as a percentage of total emissions are likely to skyrocket. While we could lower our reliance on flying (a small but growing habit), or discover completely zero carbon solutions for aviation, working out how to make SAFs sustainable and cost effective is important. Nielsen has worked with SAF in the past, as part of a project called the Queensland Sustainable Aviation Fuel Initiative. The group was trying to work out if three different sources of biofuels – sugar cane crop, algae, and a drought resistant tree called pongamia – could be made cost efficient compared to traditional fossil based jet fuels. “Whenever the prices of jet fuel go high, people start getting interested,” he says. “The only thing that could happen at a reasonable speed was sugar to fuel. But even then, we could see the prices were not competitive [even though] it’s technically very feasible.” <h2>International Jet Fuel</h2> Despite these problems, companies have started creating SAFs and selling them to aviation companies around the world. Heathrow for example is the largest major airport user of SAFs. This is partially due to a government mandate requiring 10% of jet fuel be SAF by 2030, and a priority to have at least 5 commercial-scale SAF plants under construction in the UK by 2025. This is on top of Heathrow airport putting in place SAF incentives earlier this year. In the US, the government has launched the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge to reduce the cost, enhance the sustainability, and expand the production and use of SAF. United Airlines has used over five million gallons at Los Angeles International Airport, while JetBlue has signed a ten-year uptake agreement to receive at least 670 million gallons of blended SAF to its three New York area airports – JFK, La Guardia, and Newark. But there have already been some kinks in the system, particularly with first generation biofuels. “What was really quite disastrous is that in 2005 Europe committed to using biodiesel. Of course, biodiesel manufacturers in Europe found out the cheapest oil source we have is palm oil,” Nielson said. “It expanded quite significantly the amount of biodiesel incorporated.” Unfortunately, a report in 2016 found that Europe’s switch might have increased greenhouse gas emissions. They reported that emissions from biodiesel are more than three times higher than those from conventional diesel engines when indirect effects are considered. The EU has now committed to phasing out these ‘first generation biofuels’ by 2030, but it highlights that not all sustainable fuels are equal. <h2>Australia is being left behind</h2> Meanwhile, in Australia we have barely made it into first-generation biofuels. The Queensland Sustainable Fuel Initiative shut down in the early 2010s, and there hasn’t been much traction since. This is both in getting the SAF into planes, as well as creating the fuel in Australia. Having a SAF industry in Australia would create jobs, potentially use waste products like used fry oil, as well as lower the emissions getting the fuel shipped halfway across the world. There have been a few toes dipped into the water in the past few years. In 2017 Virgin Australia announced a trial to add SAF through Brisbane Airport’s fuel supply system. It finished up in 2018, after being used in 195 flights from Brisbane. However, since the completion of the trial, there has been no other SAF incorporated into Australia’s jet fuel supply. Despite Virgin committing to net zero emissions by 2050, there’s currently no concrete plans for SAF to be used in their planes. Instead, they are prioritising modernising planes, lowering operational efficiencies, ground emissions, waste management and expanding the carbon offsetting programs. “Virgin Australia continues to work proactively with government and industry to establish a program for the viable commercial production of sustainable aviation fuel here in Australia,” a Virgin Australia Spokesperson told Cosmos in a statement. In March this year Qantas announced a Climate Action Plan where they pledged 10% SAF by 2030, and 60% by 2050. They also invested $50 million dollars in domestic production of SAF. Currently, the only SAF being used in the Qantas fleet is from the Heathrow Airport, but they’ve agreed to purchase SAF for its operations from California from 2025. In April, the Queensland government announced the first commercial sustainable aviation fuel biorefinery in Australia, which is hoping to provide 350 million litres of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel once it’s up and running. We might be waiting a while though – construction isn’t set to start until 2023, and the company behind the facility – Oceania Biofuels – has suggested that operations won’t begin until at least 2025. With the government’s 35% reduction in emissions by 2030, and net zero by 2050, working out how to create and incorporate SAFs to meet demand needs to be a priority. The previous government released a ‘bioenergy roadmap’ back in November last year, however the report has almost no commitments and limited funding for SAFs. Currently the Albanese government is still in the planning stages of creating any SAF initiatives. “The Minister for Transport has already outlined her intention to form a Jet Zero-style council to work across the aviation sector to help co-ordinate ongoing work to drive down aviation emissions,” a spokesperson for the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, Catherine King, told Cosmos. “In addition, our upcoming Aviation White Paper will consider as a priority how to maximise the aviation sector’s contribution to achieving net zero carbon emissions, including through sustainable aviation fuel and emerging technologies. “The Minister is also establishing a unit in the department to work across government and with industry to drive down domestic transport sector emissions.” This article originally appeared on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/sustainable-aviation-fuels-is-australia-being-left-behind/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Jacinta Bowler. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

We may be underestimating just how bad carbon-belching SUVs are for the climate – and for our health

Australia’s love for fuel-hungry and fuel-inefficient SUVs is hampering our ability to bring transport emissions down. SUVs make up half of all new car sales last year, a National Transport Commission <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/light-vehicle-emissions-intensity-australia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a> revealed this week – up from a quarter of all sales a decade ago. As a result, the carbon emitted by all new cars sold in Australia dropped only 2% in 2021, the report found. Sales of battery electric vehicles tripled last year, but still make up just 0.23% of all cars and light commercial vehicles on our roads. In internationally peer-reviewed <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_5ccb87ff39e545809bd1f92872e3069a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research</a> earlier this year, we measured the emissions of five SUVs driving around Sydney, and our findings suggest the situation may actually be worse than the new report finds. The National Transport Commission’s numbers are based on the “New European Drive Cycle” (NEDC) emissions test. Our research found the real-world emissions of SUVs are, on average, about 30% higher than the NEDC values. This means we are not reducing fleet average emissions by a few percent per year, but actually probably increasing them by a few percent every year. <h2>What the report found</h2> The transport sector is responsible for <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-inventory-report-2020-volume-1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">almost 20% of Australia’s emissions</a>, ranking third behind the electricity and agriculture sector. The first year of the COVID pandemic only reduced transport carbon dioxide emissions by about 7%, compared to 2019 emission levels. Overall, Australia’s pride in carbon-belching transport is evident by the fact transport CO₂ emissions have risen 14% between 2005 and 2020. SUVs are generally larger and heavier than other passenger cars, which means they need quite a bit more energy and fuel per kilometre of driving when compared with smaller, lighter cars. Although SUV sales are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/03/ban-suv-adverts-to-meet-uk-climate-goals-report-urges" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rising globally</a>, the Australian fleet is unique due to its large portion of SUVs in the on-road fleet, often with four-wheel-drive capability. According to the National Transport Commission report, sales of four-wheel-drives and utes surged by more than 43,000 in 2021, while large SUV sales rose by around 25,000. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Wild trend over the last decade of Australians shifting to bigger vehicles. "SUVs represented 25 per cent of total sales in 2011, they had increased to over half (53 per cent) of total sales in 2021." <a href="https://t.co/pCm0ASFYKd">pic.twitter.com/pCm0ASFYKd</a> — Michael Mazengarb (@MichaelM_ACT) <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelM_ACT/status/1570228921081409538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2022</a></blockquote> Rapidly shifting to electric cars is an important way to bring emissions down. But the report found in 2021, just 2.8% of Australia’s car sales were electric. Compare this to 17% in Europe, 16% in China and 5% in the United States. In Australia, there is still no option to buy an electric ute, and electric vehicles remain <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-labors-new-tax-cut-on-electric-vehicles-wont-help-you-buy-one-anytime-soon-187847" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prohibitively expensive</a>. <h2>Measuring SUV emissions in Sydney</h2> There are a <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_041d08e4653743f5a4416f79fe1dbc13.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">range of methods</a> scientists use to measure vehicle emissions. One popular method worldwide uses so-called “on-board portable emission monitoring systems”. These systems are effective because they enable second-by-second emissions testing under a variety of real-world driving conditions on the road. On the other hand, the New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) emissions test is conducted in the laboratory. It was also developed in the early 1970s and reflects unrealistic driving behaviour, because test facilities at the time could not deal with significant changes in speed. We fitted five SUVs with a portable emission monitoring system and drove them a little over 100 kilometres around Sydney in various situations, such as in the city and on the freeway. We then compared our measurements with the <a href="https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Green Vehicle Guide</a> – the national guide to vehicle fuel consumption and environmental performance, which is also based on the NEDC test. Our measurements of fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions were consistently higher. This varied from <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814" target="_blank" rel="noopener">16% to 65% higher than NEDC values</a>, depending on the actual car and driving conditions. On average, real-world fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions were both 27% higher than NEDC values. Importantly, this gap has increased substantially from <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_00dcaa41d8d046d3a7b84a65a2135bb7.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 10% in 2008</a>. Indeed, <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_00dcaa41d8d046d3a7b84a65a2135bb7.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous research</a> from 2019 found fleet average greenhouse gas emissions for new Australian cars and SUVs has probably been increasing by 2-3% percent per year since 2015, rather than the reported annual reduction by, for instance, the National Transport Commission. This detailed analysis showed a sustained increase in vehicle weight and a shift to the sale of more four-wheel-drive cars (in other words, SUVs) are probably the main factors contributing to this change. <h2>More bad news for SUVs</h2> <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_041d08e4653743f5a4416f79fe1dbc13.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">We also recently</a> summarised the results of various emission measurement campaigns conducted in Australia and compared them with international studies. These include results from a study of vehicle emissions in a tunnel, and a study of vehicle emissions measured on the road with remote sensing. We found modern diesel SUVs and cars or diesel light commercial vehicles (such as utes) in Australia and New Zealand have relatively high emissions of nitrogen oxides and soot – both important air pollutants. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/1/254" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Around 2,600 deaths</a> are attributed to fine-particle air pollution in Australia each year. Transport and industrial activities (such as mining) are the main sources of this. And in 2015, an <a href="https://nespurban.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/CAULRR06_SubmissionFuelQualityStandardsAct2000_Mar2017.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">estimated 1,715 deaths</a> were attributed to vehicle exhaust emissions – 42% more than the road toll that year. The <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_fc46b0a0b8ec45a0ae1ab01499e145d4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">remote sensing emissions data</a> suggest 1% of one to two-year-old diesel SUVs and 2% of one-to-two year old diesel light commercial vehicles have issues with their particulate filters, leading to high soot emissions. These percentages are high when compared with a <a href="https://ee.ricardo.com/news/remote-sensing-demonstrating-diesel-particulate-f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">similar study</a> conducted in the United Kingdom, which could not find any clear evidence of filter issues. <h2>Three ways to move forward</h2> Ever increasing SUVs sales are a drag on successfully reducing Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions. So what should we do? Of course there are several things to consider, but in terms of fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions, we believe there are three main points. First, we need to make sure we have realistic fuel use and emissions data. This means the National Transport Commission and Green Vehicle Guide should stop using the NEDC values and shift to more realistic emissions data. We acknowledge this is not a simple matter and it requires a lot more testing. Second, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/6/3444" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we need to</a> electrify transport as fast as we can, wherever we can. This is crucial, but not the whole solution. To ensure Australia meets its net-zero emissions target, we also need to seriously consider energy and fuel efficiency in transport. This could be by promoting the sales of smaller and lightweight vehicles, thereby optimising transport for energy efficiency. In all of this, it will be essential for car manufacturers to take responsibility for their increasing contributions to climate change. From this perspective, they should move away from marketing profitable fossil-fueled SUVs that clog up our roads, and instead offer and promote lighter, smaller and electric vehicles. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-may-be-underestimating-just-how-bad-carbon-belching-suvs-are-for-the-climate-and-for-our-health-190743" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

World’s sixth largest cruise ship will never sail

A cruise ship designed to hold more than 9,000 passengers - making it one of the largest in the world - will never set sail, instead travelling straight to a scrapyard. In a shipyard on Germany’s Baltic coast, the Global Dream II was almost complete when MV Werften, the shipbuilder, filed for bankruptcy in January 2022, per <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/20/global-dream-ii-unfinished-9000-passenger-cruise-ship-to-be-scrapped" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Guardian</a>. Lacking the funds to complete the vessel themselves, the company sought a buyer for it. Though the facilities were successfully sold to a German naval unit, the Global Dream II will be scrapped as it isn’t outfitted for military purposes. Christoph Morgen, the administrator for the bankrupt company, reportedly told a press conference that the Global Dream II would need to be moved out of the shipyard by the end of the year. German cruise industry magazine <a href="https://anbord.de/global-dream-ii-wird-verschrottet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">An Bord</a> reported that its lower hull would be disposed of for scrap price. The looming ship, along with its sister ship, Global Dream, would have held the record for largest cruise ships by passenger capacity. With a combined weight of 208,000 tons, the ships would have also been the sixth largest cruise ships by size, trailing behind the Royal Caribbean’s Oasis-class ships. Image: Getty Images

Cruising

Labor’s climate change bill is set to become law – but 3 important measures are missing

Labor’s climate change bill was <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/climate-bill-all-but-certain-after-pocock-reiterates-support-20220906-p5bftz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poised</a> to pass the Senate after the government agreed to <a href="https://www.davidpocock.com.au/climate_bills_and_jobs_skills_consultation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amendments</a> proposed by independent senator David Pocock to improve accountability and transparency. <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r6885" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The law</a> would set a national emissions target for 2030 and define a process to ratchet it up over time, as well as enshrining the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. The independent <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Change Authority</a> will recommend future targets. These are sound and useful elements and will serve Australia’s climate policymaking well. Yet three important elements are not in the bill: a long-term roadmap, securing the future of the Climate Change Authority, and measures for a proper national conversation on our journey to net-zero emissions. And the 43% emissions reduction target should be considered only a starting point. <h2>Is 43% emissions reduction enough?</h2> The bill mandates that Australia reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. Labor took that target to the federal election and has been unwilling to negotiate on it since winning office. <div data-id="17"> </div> Is a 43% reduction in Australia’s emissions adequate in the context of the Paris Agreement? There is no single objective yardstick for which country should do how much towards a global goal. And the trajectory of global emissions after 2030 – as well as before – matters greatly for longer-term global warming. But an assessment is nevertheless possible, and it suggests that strengthening the target, perhaps by a lot, would be appropriate. Emissions reductions <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2022/04/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_PressRelease_English.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">in this broad range</a> are what’s needed globally to limit warming to 2℃ compared to pre-industrial levels. But high-income, high-emitting countries – Australia prominent among them – are rightfully expected to reduce their carbon footprint more quickly than developing countries, or countries where the economy is already relatively low-carbon. What’s more, the effort needed by Australia to meet the 43% target is less than that required by many other countries. This is due to <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2021" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reductions</a> in emissions from the land use and forestry sector more than a decade ago, and because we have <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2021-78.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lots of opportunities</a> to cut emissions easily. <a href="https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/uploads/ccep_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-10/afr_energy-climate_keynote_jotzo_oct2021.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Big further reductions</a> can be made by accelerating the shift from coal to renewables, better energy efficiency, electrifying transport, and cleaner processes in industry and agriculture. An Australian reduction of the present order is definitely incompatible with limiting global warming to 1.5℃ – the global aspiration for limiting climate change. And it would be a contortion to argue it’s somehow in line with “well below 2℃”, the Paris Agreement’s <a href="https://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/files/site1/docs/%5Bmi7%3Ami7uid%5D/ClimateTargetsPanelReport.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">long-term goal</a>. All that said, a 43% emission reduction target improves a lot on the previous government’s target. And enshrining it in law sends an important message. It makes zero-emissions options much more investable, and signals internationally that Australia is back on climate change action. <h2>A trajectory to net-zero</h2> Attention will soon shift to Australia’s 2035 emissions target. The bill commits the <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Change Authority</a> to recommend that target, and new targets every five years from then on. If the government of the day does not accept that advice, it will need to explain its dissent to parliament. That is good process. But Australia also needs to plot a forward trajectory beyond the next five-year period, because the investments that matter most are made on longer timescales. Such “roadmapping” would shed light on questions such as: <ul> <li> what are the indicative targets for 2040 and beyond, on the way to net-zero emissions? </li> <li> what might be the balance between remaining greenhouse gas emissions and removing emissions from the atmosphere, whether through forests and land-based carbon, or technological solutions? </li> </ul> The Climate Change Authority may choose to do such an analysis, mapping out scenarios and possible trajectories. But such advice would have stronger standing if there was a legal requirement for it. <h2>Securing the Climate Change Authority</h2> The bill puts the Climate Change Authority centre stage, but it doesn’t make sure it will always be properly equipped to do its job. A future government might not like to hear a strong independent voice, and could quieten it by starving it. It’s happened before, following the Abbott government’s attempt to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/08/abbott-government-accused-of-trying-to-set-up-climate-change-talks-for-failure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">abolish</a> the authority. The Climate Change Authority needs to run a deeply inclusive and very extensive consultation process for future recommendations on the target. Not just roundtables and submissions to a website, but a really big effort to take the analysis to groups right across Australian society and take their views into account. Let’s hope this and future governments will give their political backing for an inclusive process, and fund the authority to do so. <h2>A proper national conversation</h2> In any case, Australia needs a national long-term emissions reduction strategy. It should answer questions such as: <ul> <li> what will the shift to net-zero emissions mean for our economy, both nationally and regionally? </li> <li> what needs to be done to prepare for the changes, maximise the upsides and deal with the downsides? </li> </ul> Such a strategy must be much more than just another report based on modelling with some stakeholder discussions along the way. What’s needed is a proper national conversation about how we tackle the transition to net-zero emissions. This would bring out all available information and the many different perspectives, opportunities and vulnerabilities. It requires people coming together to really understand the issues and, where possible, to forge agreement. That conversation should involve all major groups: businesses and business associations, non-government organisations, unions, community leaders, youth groups and so forth. The research sector would provide data and analysis, and the media would make the debate a public one, in many formats and dimensions. Governments at all levels would be involved – but they would not control the process. Some political instincts run against such truly open processes. But they’re essential – and the climate change bill doesn’t directly provide for them. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-change-bill-is-set-to-become-law-but-3-important-measures-are-missing-190102" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Shutterstock

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